We Have Something In Common..

There is only one thing 300+ million Americans have in common. Do you know what that one thing is?

The latest I have read. Is that tax rates must go up. For various reasons. Major deficits…massive amount of people on the government rolls, like disability, food stamps, housing assistance…etc…etc. This the reasoning goes this will only be fixed by raising tax rates.

These predictors want you to use their vision of the future and buy life insurance, annuities or whatever.

What they neglect to tell you is that it has been proven. When you raise tax rates, tax revenues do down. And when you lower tax rates, tax revenues go up.

This has proven to be the case time after time.

Many predictions have an ulterior motive. ‘This will happen so you must buy this other thing.’

In the case of brokerage firms. They want you trading from one hot thing to the next. Keep in mind these firms make money every time you trade.

It is the fact that no one can consistently predict the future.

Some may get lucky every once in a while. But no one can consistently predict what will happen next.

As people we all want to know what will happen in the future so we can prepare. The financial institutions rely on this and market it.

When one of a banks or brokerage firm analysts’ recommend the right stocks or pick the top or bottom of the stock market. Or an insurance company says get out of the market all together at the right time.

The financial institution will market that fact. This is why they have hundreds of analysts on staff. They know or hope one or two will get hot.

Unfortunately for investors there is no way to predict who will be the next ‘hot’ analyst or fund manager.

I know that free markets work and the stock market will recover…ok..ok it sounds like a prediction. However I do not know which sectors will do well or when there is a top or bottom.

To succeed in reaching your long term goals you must own equities….globally diversify….rebalance.

Beat The Market??

When dealing with investors I have heard a number of questions.  The most frequently asked is; what will the market do next?

Every one of them believes someone knows what will happen next. Investors are in constant search of the ‘expert’ that will give them the answers and ‘beat’ the market.

Unfortunately, there are no answers to the question; what will happen next? While investors are searching for the right answer they lose money unnecessarily.

The markets and random and unpredictable. Therefore, predicting the future is a futile journey.

This is evidenced by the Dalbar research study which looks at individual investor performance over a 30 year period. The latest study revealed that the 30 years ending December 31, 2016 average annual performance S&P500 earned 10.16% while the individual investor earned 3.98%.

Why the difference? It can partially be explained by the investors search for the ‘best’ manager. This is called track record investing and it doesn’t work.

The invisible hand of the market sets prices more efficiently than any other process known to man.  Is it perfect?  Indeed, No.  There is no perfect price; only what a willing buyer and seller negotiate.

The market instantly incorporates the collective mind of every market participants.  Markets work.  Unfortunately, most investors never tap their real power.

In fact, Gene Fama Sr won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013. His theory Efficient Market Hypothesis was written in 1965. It nearly five decades to prove his theory valid.

The theory states that all knowable information is already in the price of securities. Of course, there is more to the theory but I will refrain from becoming too detailed.

Needless to say you need to stop trying to beat the market and let the market forces work for you. This will be accomplished by owning equities….globally diversify….rebalance.  These 3 simple rules will lead to a successful investing experience.

Independence Day!!

This week we celebrate Independence Day, ‘the 4th of July”.

Many of us do not realize or forgot what this day represents. It is our Declaration of Independence from the oppression of the British government. Our day of independence from ‘taxation without representation’.

Those who signed this Declaration of Independence essentially signed their own ‘death’ warrant. Without these brave men America might not have become the great free nation that it is.

Freedom was the center post of this day.

We had been relying on the British to protect us and paid dearly for this protection. We realized that we could protect ourselves and realize our own dreams.

As an ironic twist. Last year the citizens of Great Britain voted to declare their independence from the European Union. This vote rattled the equity markets around the globe. As of today much of that decline has been recovered.

One has to wonder whether Great Britain will celebrate Independence Day on June 24, like we celebrate Independence Day on July 4th. Hopefully, the British can repeat our success over the last 241 years.

Currently, we as a nation are again relying on others to secure our future. We rely on the federal government to feed us, provide medical care and other essentials. We rely on the Wall Street bullies, including life insurance companies, to tell us what to do with our hard earned money.

Perhaps this week we should seek our own independence from these bullies. You do not have to risk your life like our fore fathers, but you can become more accountable for your own financial future.

You can protect the future you from the current you.

We continually rely on the federal government, our union leaders, the Wall Street bullies, life insurance companies, the media and on and on. Yes, you may have to experience some short term pain when equities decline. The long term benefits, however, far outweigh these painful times.

Fortunately for us, our 1776 ancestors did not shy away from risk.

Stop being a victim and hire an investor coach to help you achieve your own independence.

Do Your Emotions Make Your Investment Decisions?

When you read a daily financial publication like the Wall Street Journal you find an enormous amount of facts. These facts can lead to vastly different conclusions. I wager that each day, with the exception of 2008-9, I can find 5 reasons the market will go up and 5 reasons it will go down. All of these facts occur in the same day.

You can justify almost any imprudent investment decision with “facts.”  Information is filtered by our emotions to create “fact” that support our decisions or beliefs. Without outside guidance, it is impossible to tell when and how this happens. Truth is the field of investing is elusive.

Remember the Wall Street bullies make money when we, the public, move money from one investment to another. Your broker has a vested interest in moving your money. They make more commission each time you move. The banking system loves to feed the fear.

If you are really interested in earning a good return on your investment dollars stop empowering the Wall Street bullies. Develop a sound, prudent portfolio, based on YOUR risk tolerance level and remain disciplined to that strategy. Jumping from one investment to another will cost you money and make tons of money for Wall Street.

As I have mentioned a number of times, NO ONE can predict the future. When you ask your broker what is the best stock for now? Or, when should I get in and out of the market? Or, who is the best fund manager(s)?  You are essentially asking them to predict the future.

A globally diversified portfolio eliminates the need to predict and allows you to relax and be assured you are properly invested to reach your long term goals. One of the main attributes investors need as well as advisers is discipline.

Equities are one of the greatest wealth creation tools available, if properly used. To reach you long term financial goals own equities…..globally diversify….rebalance.

Remember, if there is no risk there is no return or a very low return. Our goal is to grow at least to maintain our purchasing power. That means keeping, at least even with inflation.

With risk comes downturns. These downturns are inevitable and must be endured to realize the great returns the equity markets have to offer.

Since 1926 there have been 89 downturns of 10% or more. During this time, the S&P 500 has had an average annual return of nearly 9%.

For most if not all investors, dealing with the downturns requires hiring an investor coach/fiduciary adviser.

More Predictions…What Are They Good For?

The ‘experts’ are coming out of the wood work with new predictions.

  • What will the future bring?
  • Where will the markets go in 2017 and beyond?
  • Where is the best place for my investments?
  • How can I earn stock market returns with Treasury bill risk?

There has been a number of ‘experts’ predicting the worst market decline in our life time within three years. WOW!!  If you looked at the track record of these supposed ‘experts’ you would be alarmed. Because their track record is horrible. Why then does the financial media interview these ‘experts’? I have no idea. And do people/investors listen to them? Again..no idea.

No one can predict the future with any consistency. However, we as humans continue to search. Many of us read our astrology message each day. Hoping we can learn what will happen to us each day. Even here there are times when these readings appear right but again there is no consistency. When these readings are right it is a matter coincidence rather than some psychic ability of the writer.

Investors continually look to someone on Wall Street or anywhere for that matter to tell them how and where to invest. This search continues regardless of the poor track record of these predictors. For example the prestigious magazine ‘The Economist’ made the following prediction at the beginning of 2013. The magazine noted that while investors were optimistic, the coming year was unlikely to be one to remember.

Another magazine ‘The Financial News’ stated “the political storm clouds loom over the global economy. From Washington to Beijing, the financial markets are in thrall seismic political events.” Obviously neither of these predictions proved accurate.

As 2013 came to a close the equity markets have had a stellar year.

Regardless of these and other inaccurate predictions, investors continue to search for answers and continue to read and absorb these and other publications. Many investors tell me that the stock market is too risky for them. This is true when your strategy is to listen to the ‘expert’ forecasts and basing you investment allocation of those predictions. When you base your investment strategy based on a forecast of the future you are gambling and speculating with your money.

The real problem is when one of these ‘forecaster’ is right, which is statistically inevitable. These predictors will market this fact extensively.  What investors don’t seem to realize is that there is no correlation between past performance and future results. Like I said some of these forecasters will be right but there is no reliable way to know which one(s) will be right going forward.

Dr. Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013

for his work on efficient markets. Dr. Fama essentially proved that all knowable information is already in the price of the security. There is no reliable way to predict how the markets will perform going forward.

Throughout my career in financial services I have also continued to search for the ‘answer’ with some success followed by poor results. I finally remembered by finance courses in both college and graduate school. In my studies I learned that there is an academic and scientific method to investing that has proven to be successful in the long term. The issue is that these methods do not eliminate risk but rather work to control it.

Investors would be more successful with less anxiety if they worked with an investor coach. An investor coach will teach you among other things where returns really come from. HINT: it does not come from the hot stock picker or market timer or the manager with the best track record.

Trying to adjust your strategy based on current conditions will result in poor and disappointing results.

When you have a prudent process and the discipline which an investor coach will provide, success will be yours WITHOUT the need for an accurate forecast.

Markets are Random …..Get Over It!!

I just read an article that many Americans are afraid of stocks. They are afraid they will lose all their money. Many expect to earn stock market returns with treasury bill risk.

Many investors I talk with each day have different reasons for not investing in the equity markets. Including ‘the market is at an all-time high of 21,000 that is too high’.  Or ‘I am about to retire and I cannot afford to take a loss in the equity markets’.

These investors believe equity risk is their greatest risk. In fact, it is inflation risk that is their relentless enemy. They need to at least maintain the purchasing power of their money. This is best accomplished with equities.

Then there are those that believe there is someone out there who can and does know when to get in and out of the market to maximize return and avoid all losses.

After two decades of research I can tell you this person does not exist.  You will find someone who makes a correct prediction. The problem is there is no evidence that their predictions will be correct going forward.

For example, the market crashed when there was a terrorist attack just three years ago. Over the last two months there has been terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom and the markets barely moved.

Like I said random and unpredictable.

You cannot consistently predict market movements based on past events. There rarely is any cause and effect that repeats.

If you invest in stock markets no one can predict “save” you from the down periods—NO ONE.  If markets were not random and unpredictable, they wouldn’t offer higher expected returns.

Markets randomly and unpredictably go up and down.

Perhaps we should have faith in the free markets and allow them to work. And worry about something fun like ‘will it rain this weekend?’ Or ‘Will my boat start?’ Or ‘ how will I clean up the huge tree that this weekend storm took down? Or ‘Why can’t the Brewers win a close game?’

As we age our situation gradually changes from growing our money to taking an income stream that keeps up with inflation. To succeed in this, we must reduce the level of risk in our portfolio as we grow older.

We will succeed in our investing when we own equities, globally diversify and rebalance.

That if we fire our broker/agent and hire an investor coach/fiduciary adviser.

As Always..”Diversification Is Your Buddy!”

Given the recent outstanding returns for U.S. large stocks, many investors are considering moving all their money into this hot asset class. Thereby avoiding U.S. small stocks, international stocks and emerging market stocks, including fixed income.

 

Since no one can predict the future, this is a huge mistake.

 

You must decide if you are a gambler/speculator or an investor. Gamblers believe they can out guess the market and avoid all losses. The gamblers have proven numerous times to be wrong in the long run.

 

Casinos were not built because the public ‘wins’. There were built because the owners know gamblers lose long term.

 

Part of the issue is that gamblers need to brag to their friends about how well they did. They naturally forget the losses.

 

In markets like these diversification is your buddy.

 

Proper diversification spreads risk across various asset classes with varying return characteristics or dissimilar price movement.

 

Simply said: they don’t do the same thing at the same time. Most investors are narrowly diversified into top performing funds or classes of the last five to ten years.

 

They often feel diversified but aren’t. To be diversified means including classes or types of funds in your portfolio that did poorly over the last five to ten years. If you do this, your portfolio will look and perform very differently from your neighbors’ or friends’.

 

Those of you which are my clients, own portfolios which are professionally diversified and rebalanced much like some large pension funds.

 

Since most investors will be retired a long time. They need to invest for the long term which can be 20 to 30 to 40 to even 50 years. Many investors have a hard time thinking is such long terms.

Even if you look at a 10 year period a diversified portfolio will in most cases prevail.

 

Over time these portfolios will help you successfully accomplish your investment and retirement goals.

 

To succeed in investing you must own equities….globally diversify…..rebalance.

 

Please email or message any questions or comments and I will personally respond appropriately.

Memorial Day 2017!!!!

For regular readers of my messages you will recognize this message from past years. I am repeating it for two reasons. One, it is a great message and two, I am a bit lazy (AGAIN) this week. So, enjoy!

As we celebrate Memorial Day 2017 let us not forget those who fought and died for us and those who continue to fight for us. To protect our freedom.

You will never know how much it cost the present generation to preserve your freedom! I hope you will make good use of it!! – John Adams

This week will be a short message. Please remember and honor those who fought and continue the fight for our ability to seek the American dream. Every one of us has the ability to seek the American dream, however it involves sacrifice. There are no short cuts to prosperity.

The free markets are part of the reason our veterans fought. It does not involve speculation but rather prudent investing. The American dream is not a get rich scheme. It requires sacrifice, hard work and planning.

As John Adams said above “I hope you make good use of it!!”

Honor our veterans, past and present, by making good use of it.

Investing Takes Time….

It takes not just linear time, ticking minute after minute, day after day, and year after year – but emotional time and maturity.

Think of time in these terms:  Time = Things I must experience, things I must endure.

For every investor, there will be times of great pain and self doubt.  These times will create fear, anxiety and stress.

We continue to ask, ‘am I doing the right thing?’ ‘is this advice in my best interest or in the best interest of the adviser and their company?’ ‘Should I be in the stock market or out of it?’ The questions are never ending.

Many investors during a market down turn will change advisers. They will find an adviser who did better during the downturn and move to them. I call this, musical brokers.

We attempt to compare our portfolio strategy with a neighbor or friend. Unfortunately, our focus is on short term results. The results from month to month are really, meaningless to a true investor.

Gamblers/speculators are focused on short term results. Their focus is on immediate results. If the results are not favorable they will seek to adjust their strategy. Many will say ‘it just isn’t my day’. They continue to search for the ‘hot thing’. They continue to seek out the way to make a ‘killing’.

Please keep in mind successful investors focus on the horizon. There is no quick, easy way out of the pain of down markets.  They must be faced and endured to earn financial and emotional success.

Many are not really looking to invest but rather are looking for action. These are the traits of gamblers/speculators.

There is no long term, substitute for a disciplined strategy process with investing.  Anything else would be speculating.

Process is the most important component of any investment strategy. Investors must choose an investing process and stick with it.

In my experience – it is impossible to eliminate emotions from the investing process. Because everyone is human. The trick is to harness them in empowering ways.

You must own equities…globally diversify…rebalance.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

There continues to be conflict in the U.S. political arena. Trump haters versus Trump lovers. Our country remains divided on many important issues.

There is concerns about North Korea and their insistence on nuclear testing. This is a dangerous time.

But unfortunately, somewhere in the world there is a dangerous time.

Then where does Russia fit it in?

Is the media helping or hurting?

There are those that believe that the markets will go down as a result and we should exit the market. At least until things calm down.

Since there are over six billion people on this planet. There is always conflict somewhere. And there always will.

During these times of crisis we have a tendency to make emotional decisions. Decisions that are NOT in our own best interests.

Ideally, we should all just time the market cycles and only buy when the market is low and sell when the market is high. Unfortunately, few, if any investors are able to do this with any consistency.

We tend to make our investment decisions based on recent past events and how we feel about those events.

If the market has done well lately, we wish, we are comfortable buying stocks. If the market has done poorly, however, we avoid them. Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of what we should do if our goal is to maximize our long term return.

Once we feel “comfortable” with the market, we have usually already passed up large potential gains. The stock market is forward looking and usually starts trending upwards between 6 to 9 months ahead of the economy actually recovering from a down cycle.

There is an unholy alliance between the media and the large financial institutions to convince the investing public to continue trading by spreading fear and panic.

Many investors mistakenly believe that the big brokerage firms make money by trading in and out of the ‘right’ investments

The large financial institutions make money when YOU trade in and out, making money on every trade.

You should own equities…globally diversify…rebalance and believe that America and the capital markets will recover and prosper. We as a country have been thru much worse and we recovered and became stronger.

The problem is no one can consistently predict what will happen and when.

During times of crisis should we cut and run or should we stand and fight? Historically the fighters are the ones that profit and prosper. Those that cut and run grasp unto their ‘guarantees’ and wonder why they are always behind.

To best deal with the inevitable ‘bad’ times fire your broker/agent and hire an investor coach/fiduciary adviser.