As I do many times prior to watching the Green Bay Packers beat the Seattle Seahawks I was watching the NFL pregame show. Each week the ‘experts’ pick the winners of specific games. These ‘experts’ are made up of Super Bowls winning players as well as coaches. There ‘experts’ should be able to correctly pick the winners of any game each week.
After all there are only 16 games to choose from. These ‘experts’ have access to all the statistics. Who is playing, who is hurt, who is playing well and who is not. Past performance is there only criteria. Given the past these ‘experts’ make their predictions.
Now that we are in the playoffs there are even less choices.
Well Last week Terry Bradshaw, Super Bowl winning quarterback for Pittsburgh Steelers back in the 70s. He was also MVP of 2 Super Bowl(s). These credentials should give him the credibility to pick the winners with ease.
Terry said that the Minnesota Vikings had no chance against the New Orleans Saints. Terry gave many reasons This was a sure thing.
He was not alone all the ‘experts’ picked New Orleans to win easily. In fact, if you were to keep track, these ‘experts’ have a terrible record.
You can guess what happened. Minnesota won the game easily.
Investors can learn a lesson here. There is no such thing as a sure thing. The equity markets are random and unpredictable. Just like NFL games. Even if you have all the statistics supporting your position. You cannot consistently pick the direction of the equity markets, nor can you consistently pick the stock winners.
If the NFL ‘experts’ cannot pick the winners out of 16 games each week and much less in the playoffs. What makes you think you can pick the right stocks and the direction of the equity markets.
I wonder what the ‘experts’ will predict in the conference championships. I hope they pick against the Packers, especially Terry Bradshaw.
When you build a prudent globally diversified portfolio a correct prediction is not required. Over the long term you will succeed. There will be, however, times when your diversified portfolio will under perform a specific asset class.
Investors need to remain disciplined and maintain their long-term view of the equity markets. Most cannot do this alone.
It will require the help of a fiduciary adviser/investor coach. Your coach will keep you disciplined and remain focused on your long-term goals.