Each day the media focuses on a new prediction. Each day the media develops a new concern for investors. Their audience is continually searching for new predictions. Their audience is continually looking for stories that have a negative impact on their investments and their lives.
Because the equity markets have continued their upward move. Many ‘experts’ are predicting a downturn, What they don’t tell you is when and how much. Eventually someone will be right.
Unfortunately for investors these predictions are useless and without merit. These investors are looking for someone to predict the future. (If there is someone you CAN predict the future please tell me who will win the NFL Super Bowl. It would save a lot of my time watching the games.)
Will Aaron Rodgers stay healthy enough to continue playing? What will happen to the Packers defense? Who will fix it? What will happen next? What is the new hot asset class? Where is the best place to put my money? Who will be Super Bowl Champ?
Lately the political arena has been a hot bed of concerns. Who will be the next Supreme court justice? How will we handle immigration? This list seems endless. There will always be pontification from both sides.
The question becomes how will any of this affect you directly? Can you really predict how any of these predictions will affect your/our world?
Everyone wants to believe the side they agree with.
Everyone wants to have the best investments, only making money and avoiding all losses. This futile exercise will only add anxiety to your life. No one can consistently predict the future.
When someone is right on a prediction it is a matter of luck and not skill or knowledge.
Free markets are unpredictable.
Free markets left to their own devices set prices better than any individual or committee. They incorporate all of the knowable and predictable information in the present, as well as knowable information about the future.
Only unknowable future news and information can change prices going forward.
Rather than attempting to predict the future use your time and resources to improve your skills, either career or life.
You can also spend your time with friends and family. Because we cannot predict the future and we cannot control the future.
The past has told us that the markets go up and the markets go down. The next 100% move will be up. But no one can tell how long it will take and when.
Your investments are best allocated by owning equities, globally diversify and rebalance. Follow these three simple rules and you will succeed in reaching your long term goals.