Predicting The Future Is Really Hard!!

Last week there was a surprise winner in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. Donald J. Trump became President elect.

This was a shock to many. It seems as though every pollster in the country had Hillary Clinton winning the Presidency handily. I read where one had the probability at 95%. This however meant that there was a 5 % chance that Trump would win. Keep in mind I didn’t solve this using common core math. 100% minus 95% equals 5%.

I’m not really sure what happened. Was America just ready for a change? Was this the Baby Boomer’s again, going against the establishment?  I for one when asked by a pollster responded with ‘none if your business’.

The reaction to results for some was devastating. How could their candidate actually lose? Perhaps these individuals have been taught that they could not lose.  That everyone must agree with them or they are, well, Bad people.  Where has the art of debate gone? Of course, that is just my opinion.

What I do know is that predicting the future is really, really, hard. There are so many variables that can affect the ultimate outcome of any unknown. That it is impossible to accurately predict a future event. How confident would you be if someone said there is a 95% chance you will succeed?

It happens all the time in the medical field.

It happens all the time in every facet of our lives. Long shots happen. Based on the Green Bay Packers recent performance(s). Would you believe they will make the playoffs? As a die-hard fan, I continue to believe. As a realist hmmmmm.

The point is predicting the future should be left to gamblers and speculators.

  • You should not stock pick.
  • You should not market time.
  • You should not invest based on a manager’s past performance.

As an investor preparing for your retirement. You need a solid plan. A plan that you can believe in long term.

This plan includes owning equities…Globally diversify….Rebalance.

It is also important that you work with an adviser that aligns with your beliefs. Someone who keeps you focused on the long term. Someone who will help you ignore short term volatility.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *