Well the 2016 NFL draft is complete and my Green Bay Packers have made their selections. I wonder if anyone will compare the predictions with the actual picks.
Many ‘experts’ gave their predictions of which player each team should choose and why. It’s funny that none of these ‘experts’ are held accountable to their predictions. Because they are seen again and again as ‘experts’.
Now the analysis of grading the teams on their picks. I’m guessing it’s based on the same experts that predicted who they should pick.
What these ‘experts’ fail to realize is that the only true analysis is whether the picks help the team win football games. What about team chemistry?
So let’s get this straight first the ‘experts’ predict which players each team should pick. Then they predict which teams made the best picks. This is all followed by picking which teams will win their divisions, then win in the playoffs, then win the Super Bowl.
If we looked at all these predictions we will quickly realize that NO ONE can predict the future. NO ONE can predict which players will be stars. There is no way to consistently predict who will win and who will lose.
And yet the public continues to ask for predictions. Everyone wants to know what will happen next and how it will affect them. Every day we watch the weather forecast often disappointed that the predictions was WRONG. But guess what the next day we will watch the same forecaster. WHY?
To put this all into perspective, there were 253 players chosen in the 2016 NFL draft. There will be stars that were not even chosen playing in the NFL. Why were these players missed? If all the experts had access to unlimited data on all amateur players. Why were the future stars missed?
Let’s compare that with the stocks available around the world, something like 12,000. How can the ‘experts’ pick which ‘ones’ will outperform other stocks and the market in general? Yet the public continues to watch the financial shows to find the next ‘hot’ stock or asset class.
Investors continue to look for predictions on where and when to invest their money. They watch the business news shows with the same predictors that got it wrong time after time. WHY?
It seems investors believe that investing means getting rich overnight.
These same investors fail to realize that the equity markets are random and unpredictable.
A much better strategy, if your goal is a secure retirement:
- Own equities and high quality short duration fixed income.
- Globally diversify.
This strategy requires process and discipline. Both of which do-it-yourselfers are in short supply. It requires the guidance of an investor coach/fiduciary adviser.