Ted Thompson

This week the NFL will have its annual draft. Every team will each pick the player they feel will best help their team.

There is a lot of conversation and speculation on who each pick should be. Here in Green Bay fans are making their favorite pick. There is speculation that Ted Thompson, the Packer General Manager, will choose a linebacker or is it defensive lineman or is it offensive lineman?

Whomever each team chooses there will be questions about whether it was the right pick.

I believe if the player chosen helps you win it is a great pick. If not the picker should be fired. There have been countless hours used to analyze the correct pick.

As I said the only true test is how the draft pick performs on the field. Will he help us win?

Some teams trade future picks to move ’up’ in the draft to pick the ‘right’ player. This is much like trying to pick the next ‘hot’ stock and next ‘hot’ asset class.

Other teams like the Packers, Ted Thompson, Cherishes each draft pick. These managers believe in diversification. They know that trading and draft picking do not work over the long term. They know that you cannot predict a players success based on his past performance.

Some picks will work out great and some will be ‘busts’.

Like investing the successful teams build each year with diversified picks. They do not look for the ‘one’ guy to bring them to the promised land. The Super Bowl.

Predicting the next great player is like listening to The Jim Cramer Show. Each day Jim gives his ‘hot’ picks. He also gives his prediction of the future, ie, which way will the market go over the short term. His record, if you check, is quite poor.

Here’s a fun fact. The producer of the Jim Cramer Show is the same producer of the Jerry Springer Show. Remember the Springer show with its wild out bursts? It was purely for entertainment. Much like the Cramer show. The producer was interviewed and said that most of the ideas for Cramer’s show came from the Springer show.

As an investor you need to ask yourself. Do you want to predict the next ‘hot’ stock or next ‘hot’ asset class? Or do you want to develop a diversified portfolio with consistent success?

As in the NFL the draft is just the beginning. The next step to success is coaching. With the guidance of an investor coach/fiduciary adviser you will have the necessary discipline for long term investing success.

This past weekend was the NFL draft. This is where the ‘experts’ tell us who the best college players are by position. The media and the NFL makes this draft a spectacular (or is it spectacle?) event. I am always amazed at the attention this receives from the media and the fans. If you look at past performance of these ‘experts’ why would you pay any attention at all?

This event has to be considered entertainment for the fans not for reliable information.

After the event the picks by the general managers are critiqued by the same ‘experts’. In Green Bay it is a full three day event for many, not me though. I must admit however that I did add an app to my iPhone to learn the Packers picks as they occurred.

The Packers General Manager Ted Thompson, as usual, went against the ‘experts’ picks and made his own decisions. He does not only pick the player with the best physical ability but also how the player would fit into the team concept. Football remains a team sport, regardless of what the ‘experts’ say. That said, Ted Thompson like I’m sure most other General Managers have a process, a system they follow to make their picks.

I believe once a GM caves in to the public pressure or begins listening to the ‘experts’ their jobs will be lost. Sooner rather than later.

Are the GMs always right? Absolutely NOT!! However when they follow a process that they believe in they will succeed in the long term.

This is also true with successful investing. When you follow a prudent process that you believe in you will succeed long term. Of course, there will be times when your portfolio will underperform. However, by not listening to the media ‘experts’ and remaining true to your beliefs you will succeed, long term.

Investing is not a short term event but rather a long term process. You need your savings to last a life time. Gambling and speculating is not the answer. While you may get lucky chances are you will lose. A consistent proven process will get you to your financial goals.

Once the general manager and head coach have assembled their team. It is the coach’s job to develop their own proven process. The coach will instill teamwork and discipline to build a successful team. Without the guidance of a strong head coach any team will fail. Even if the team has the best players at every position without a strong coach there will be failure.

Like a NFL team a successful financial portfolio will have the guidance of an investor coach. Your investor coach will help develop a globally diversified portfolio and keep you disciplined to your long term strategy. You need to remain focused on your long term goals. Without the guidance of a strong investor coach you will be swayed by the media ‘experts’.

Without a coach you will make decisions based on short term noise.

Like a strong NFL coach your investor coach will help control your emotions during both up AND down markets.

Fire your broker/agent and hire an investor coach/fiduciary adviser.