Being a die-hard Packer fan has its ups and downs just like any other team. The beginning of this NFL has produced many ups and downs. The experts continue to predict who will win with little success over the long term. Last week a strong favorite Minnesota Vikings lost at home to the Buffalo Bills. This week the Packers beat the same Buffalo Bills in a shut out. Keep in mind the Packers and Vikings
Despite their lack of success the ‘experts’ continue to make predictions. Every week a panel of ‘experts’ pick their favorites to win that week. Last week every ‘expert’ picked the Vikings to win. All wrong. This week they all picked the Packers to win. All right.
The problem we have is we never know when they will be all right and when they will be all wrong. Or will some of the panel be right and some wrong. And who will that be?
Investors face the same challenges. There are predictions every day by many ‘experts’. In this case the panel of ‘experts’ is huge and makes the NFL panel look puny.
Investors are often confused by the predictions. Many of these ‘experts’ have some short term success in picking stocks or timing the market. Investors believe that this success is repeatable. What they do not realize is that the short term success is a matter luck and not skill.
Like the NFL picking the ‘experts’ that are all right is nearly impossible. These investors are really nothing more than speculators and not investors.
Investors that are interesting in creating wealth will be better served by developing a globally diversified portfolio and rebalance on a periodic basis.
Keep in mind that the equity markets are the greatest wealth creation tool on the planet. If you follow a prudent process and remain disciplined.